A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
There are now fewer than a hundred days until Election Day in November.
LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Yeah, and some states still have primaries to set those fall matchups. All leading to the big question, will Democrats win control of at least one chamber of Congress, breaking up full Republican control in D.C.?
MARTÍNEZ: For insights into that, let's go to senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson. Mara, both Democrats and Republicans are making the case for why they'll win congressional majorities in the midterms. So let's start with Democrats. What are they touting as advantages for them?
MARA LIASSON, BYLINE: Well, I see the midterms as a story of two competing forces. Republicans have some structural advantages. Democrats have some organic advantages. Democrats are running against an unpopular incumbent and his party. Even though Donald Trump is not on the ballot, his approval rating is under 40%, and that hurts Republicans.
Voters have soured on his agenda. They're unhappy with the economy. They're unhappy about the Iran war and tariffs. They blame both of those things for high prices. Democrats also have an advantage in voter enthusiasm and turnout. More Democrats have been turning out in primaries and special elections this year.
MARTÍNEZ: All right. What about the case for Republicans?
LIASSON: Right. Republicans, you would think that when you look at all these organic factors, you would say, whoa, looks like a big blue wave forming. But historical rules only work till they stop working.
MARTÍNEZ: (Laughter) Yeah.
LIASSON: And Republicans have some structural advantages. The Democratic brand is polling very poorly now, so Democrats are not able to take full advantage of the incumbent party's problems. Republicans also have raised much, much more money than Democrats. President Trump helped his party when he initiated an unprecedented wave of midcycle partisan redistricting - or gerrymandering. And Republicans were able to create more Republican-leaning House districts and decrease the number of competitive House districts overall. That gives them a big advantage.
MARTÍNEZ: Now, millions of voters will cast their ballots ahead of Election Day. So for many, there are fewer than 99 days until they make their choice. So is there anything you see maybe that could alter the prevailing narrative?
LIASSON: Theoretically, yes. President Trump could find a face-saving way to end the Iran war. And then maybe some of the economic pressures, especially high gas prices, could ease up in time for voters to change their minds. Or the Democratic Party could nominate candidates too far to the left to win general elections in some swing districts or battleground states. That said, in the past, when we get to August and September, voters' minds are pretty much made up. It's hard to change them by then.
MARTÍNEZ: Any particularly juicy races you're keeping an eye on?
LIASSON: Yeah, I'm keeping an eye on two Senate races in particular. In Michigan, I'm watching the Democratic primary, which happens next week. Democrats there have a choice between a left-wing populist, Abdul El-Sayed, or a more centrist candidate, Haley Stevens. And the question is, can a left-wing populist win a general election in a swing state like Michigan, which Democrats have to win if they're going to have any chance of winning the Senate majority.
I'm also looking at Maine, where Democrats also need to win if they're going to get the Senate majority. And they have a new candidate there. Troy Jackson, he's replaced Graham Platner on the ballot. And they're trying to defeat Susan Collins, who is the only Republican Senate incumbent running this year in a blue state, a state that went for Kamala Harris. So the big question there is, can Jackson stand up a campaign, raise millions of dollars to defeat Collins, who has tons of money and has proven she can win tough races in Maine?
MARTÍNEZ: That's NPR's Mara Liasson. Mara, thanks.
LIASSON: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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